The Impact of COVID-19 Policies on Cohabitation Patterns, Family Formation & Dissolution, and Fertility in Russia: A Regional Analysis (Funded by NIH Grant: The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies: A Cross-Country Analysis of Macro Events)

Abstract

This paper uses a novel dataset on COVID-19 restrictions in Russia to estimate the effect of COVID-19 mitigation policies on the composition of Russian households. Specifically, we explore how heterogeneous regional and federal COVID-19-related policies altered the co-residence patterns. Cohabitation decisions of individuals might have been affected by school closures, shifts to virtual schooling, income support programs to families with children and to the elderly, business closures, mobility restrictions, various accommodations, and other COVID-related policies. The timing, duration, and other details of these policies vary drastically region to region. This allows us to choose the proper control and treated regional groups and to identify the magnitude of the effect of these policies on cohabitation patterns. Additionally, we explore the impact of COVID-19 mitigation restrictions on weddings, divorces, and fertility. Stay-at-home orders and restrictions on business have complicated the dating process. Moreover, some regions closed Registry offices for marriages and divorces during the height of the pandemic, while other regions introduced restrictions on the maximum number of wedding guests. The exacerbated uncertainty influenced both union formation and fertility. The consequences of all these changes in household composition on people’s wellbeing are also discussed.

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